South Africa, coastal communities, rising sea levels, internal displacement, Durban, Gqeberha, Port Elizabeth, informal settlements, migration health, climate change, flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion, urban migration, vulnerable populations, cross-border migrants, internal migrants, disaster risk, public health, housing insecurity, health systems, gender vulnerability, undocumented migrants, climate adaptation, coastal policy, National Coastal Management Programme, CARP, environmental health, relocation, psychosocial stress, infectious diseases, TB, HIV, community resilience, flood mapping, municipal planning, participatory research, disaster preparedness, adaptation strategies, climate-driven migration, migration policy, health outcomes, temporary shelters, livelihoods disruption, informal housing, sanitation, drainage infrastructure, equity, social determinants of health, mobile health services, municipal governance, urban planning, South African policy, health equity.

What are the hidden connections between rising sea levels along South Africa’s coastline and internal displacement in communities like Durban and Port Elizabeth?

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Hidden Links Between Rising Sea Levels and Internal Displacement in South Africa’s Coastal Communities

Opening: When the Tide Forces Movement

In April 2022, heavy rains and flooding hit eThekwini (Durban), killing over 400 people. Thousands of homes were destroyed, and tens of thousands had to relocate temporarily. Along South Africa’s coastline, sea levels are rising at rates nearly twice the global average, with Cape Town recording ~6.3 mm per year between 1993–2022. Rising tides and erosion are gradually threatening communities in Durban and Gqeberha. The link between slow-onset sea-level rise and internal displacement remains underexplored, yet it has profound health and migration implications.

Policy Landscape: What Exists and What’s Missing

Existing frameworks
South Africa has launched several coastal adaptation policies. The Climate Change Coastal Adaptation Response Plan (CARP, 2025) aims to build resilience in coastal communities exposed to rising seas and storm surges. The Second National Coastal Management Programme (NCMP 2025–2030) focuses on ecosystem protection, climate resilience, and equitable access. In addition, the Integrated Coastal Management Act 24 of 2008 (ICMA) regulates land use in coastal zones.

Gaps and challenges
Despite these policies, internal displacement is rarely addressed. The NCMP notes implementation hurdles, including limited funding and inconsistent enforcement. Informal settlements are largely excluded from planning and adaptation measures. Consequently, millions of residents live in flood-prone zones without formal protections. Moreover, health implications for displaced or relocated residents are rarely incorporated, leaving migrants and undocumented populations particularly vulnerable.

Empirical Evidence: Coastal Hazards and Displacement

Sea-level rise trends
Recent studies show that South Africa’s coasts are experiencing sea-level rise up to twice the global rate. The South African Risk & Vulnerability Atlas identifies coastal erosion and flooding as key threats to human settlement. By 2030, median sea-level rise could reach 11.4 cm, increasing the risk of relocation for communities in marginal areas.

Internal displacement in practice
Approximately 211,000 people were displaced in South Africa in 2023 due to natural disasters, though many cases go unrecorded. The April 2022 KZN floods disproportionately affected informal settlement residents, forcing them to seek temporary shelters. Mapping studies show that these communities face high flood risk, making relocation increasingly likely.

Intersectional vulnerabilities
Women, children, older adults, and undocumented migrants face compounded risks. Informal settlements often lack sanitation, clean water, and health services, exacerbating disease exposure during floods. Migrants may avoid shelters due to documentation concerns, leaving them in high-risk zones.

Anonymized case examples

  • Case A: “M,” a 34-year-old undocumented migrant in Durban, lost his home and informal employment during the 2022 floods, disrupting his ART treatment and causing chronic stress.

  • Case B: “N,” a 28-year-old mother in Gqeberha, relocated her children twice due to storm surges, facing recurring malaria and gastro outbreaks.

  • Case C: “T,” a 56-year-old internal migrant in Durban, lost his rental property to coastal flooding and now commutes further to work, impacting his livelihood and mental health.

Pathways Linking Sea-Level Rise to Health Risks

Location vulnerability
Coastal cities attract migrants for economic opportunities. Many settle in hazard-prone areas such as estuaries and floodplains. Rising seas increase the likelihood of displacement and loss of livelihoods.

Compound hazards
Sea-level rise intensifies flooding and erosion. When combined with heavy rainfall or storm surges, communities face urgent relocation.

Internal displacement dynamics
Hazard-affected households may move inland or to cheaper settlements, often disrupting livelihoods and access to healthcare. Some populations remain in dangerous zones, becoming “trapped” by economic or social constraints.

Health system impacts
Displacement disrupts healthcare access, particularly for chronic disease management (e.g., TB, HIV). Overcrowded temporary shelters increase infection risk, while psychosocial stress rises due to instability.

Invisible displacement
Many moves go unrecorded. Even short-distance relocations within a city carry significant health consequences but remain invisible to policymakers.

Innovative Solutions and Successful Programs

  • Community-led resilience: ICLEI Africa’s PhotoVoice project in Durban empowered residents to document flood impacts and plan responses.

  • Hazard mapping tools: CSIR’s flood-risk viewer helps planners visualize sea-level rise and informal settlement vulnerabilities.

  • Municipal adaptation: eThekwini’s 2025 flood-prevention plan targets drainage improvements and inclusive relocation for high-risk informal settlements.

  • Participatory research: Global South studies show local knowledge integration improves disaster preparedness in informal communities.

Actionable Recommendations

National government (2026–2028)

  • Embed migration-health considerations in CARP and NCMP.

  • Collect displacement data in coastal metros, focusing on informal settlements.

  • Fund mobile health services and psychosocial support for hazard-prone areas.

Provincial and municipal governments (2025–2030)

  • Map hazard-exposed informal settlements and overlay with migrant populations.

  • Upgrade drainage, sanitation, and relocation options in high-risk zones.

  • Ensure inclusive shelters with health services for displaced populations.

NGOs and researchers (2025–ongoing)

  • Conduct longitudinal studies on health outcomes of displaced coastal residents.

  • Scale community-led resilience projects.

  • Advocate for policies linking sea-level rise, displacement, and health.

Health practitioners

  • Incorporate mobility screening in patient intake forms.

  • Train staff on migration-health in the context of coastal hazards.

  • Deploy mobile outreach teams to informal settlements and relocated populations.

Conclusion: A Call to Action

Rising seas are reshaping South Africa’s urban and coastal landscape. Cities like Durban and Gqeberha face overlapping challenges of climate risk, migration, and public health stress. Immediate action is required: integrate displacement into coastal adaptation, strengthen municipal planning, empower communities, and track health outcomes. Without this, the next wave of internal displacement may strain health systems and worsen inequities for vulnerable populations.

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