Which Sectors Face Labour Shortages from Return Migration?

When Our Neighbours Stop Coming: Return Migration and Sectoral Labour Gaps in South Africa

Opening: A Startling Case and the Context

In early 2021, during South Africa’s Covid‑19 lockdown, around 100,000 labour migrants returned from South Africa to Lesotho. Many had worked in low‑skilled sectors such as domestic work, construction, mining, and agriculture (lesotho.un.org).

Of these returnees, 40% were aged 26–35, and 19% were under 25. Eighty-one percent said Covid‑19 prompted their return, while 62% reported job losses (publications.iom.int).

One Basotho domestic worker described leaving Gauteng after her employer dismissed all live-in staff. She returned to rural Leribe district and struggled to find employment in 2021.

At the same time, several South African sectors show troubling vacancy levels. In mid‑2025, eThekwini’s water and sanitation unit reported that more than half the posts were vacant (salabournews.co.za).

These events raise a critical question: Which South African sectors face labour shortages due to reduced cross-border migration from Lesotho and Eswatini? Addressing this question helps health-system planners, labour-policy makers, and public-health stakeholders understand economic and social risks.

Sectoral Analysis: Where Labour Shortages Intersect with Return Migration

Mining

Lesotho and Eswatini have historically supplied migrant labour to South Africa’s mines. In 2020, reports noted that these countries still provided around 10% of South Africa’s 450,000-strong mining workforce (clubofmozambique.com).

Contraction in foreign labour and retrenchments reduced this reliance. Lesotho’s Basotho miners in South Africa fell from roughly 100,000 to 46,000 since 1990 (southafrica.co.za).

In 2020, mining companies reported that bringing back their foreign workforce could take months, reducing output by about 10% (clubofmozambique.com).

Key point: Mining faces plausible labour shortages due to reduced cross-border flows, though precise data for 2024–25 are limited.

Agriculture and Seasonal Labour

The South African government reports that migrant workers from SADC countries dominate agriculture, fishing, mining, construction, and informal sectors (gov.za).

Lesotho assessments found that 11% of returnees had worked in agriculture in South Africa (lesotho.un.org).

Agricultural employers may face seasonal labour shortages when migrants return home during crises, as seen in South Africa’s Western Cape fruit industry.

Key point: Agriculture likely experiences gaps due to trans-border migration, though evidence linking Lesotho/Eswatini returnees to shortages is weak.

Domestic Work, Care, and Informal Services

Women from Lesotho often work in domestic service, commerce, hawking, and vending (epubs.ac.za).

Twenty percent of returnees in 2020 had been domestic workers (lesotho.un.org).

South African labour policy confirms that domestic work relies heavily on migrant labour (labour.gov.za).

When domestic workers return home, households and care-service firms struggle to fill vacancies. These gaps affect older persons’ care, child care, and home-based health services.

Key point: Domestic and informal service sectors are critical vectors of labour shortage connected to cross-border migration.

Construction and Infrastructure

South Africa’s Draft Labour Migration Policy highlights construction as a sector reliant on migrant workers (gov.za).

Large infrastructure projects in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal draw migrant labour from SADC countries. Withdrawal of cross-border workers increases vacancy pressures.

Key point: Construction likely faces labour shortages, though precise data remain scarce.

Health Care and Public Services

Foreign nationals make up nearly 90% of South Africa’s public-sector health and education workers (2024) (ddp.org.za).

Return migration affects auxiliary health staff, cleaners, and technical personnel. Shortages in these roles influence TB and HIV service delivery, occupational health, and public-health resilience (impactmigration.org).

Key point: Health sector labour gaps connect with migration flows and return migration, though direct data is limited.

Policy Analysis and Gaps

South African frameworks: The NLMP aims to balance local employment with regional labour flows (labour.gov.za).

Lesotho & Eswatini: Lesotho’s National Migration Development Policy (2021) and Eswatini’s 2025 Labour Migration Policy address structured labour migration and migrant protections (socialsurveys.co.za; independentnews.co.sz).

Gaps:

The NLMP lacks monitoring for informal and undocumented migrant flows (businessday.co.za).
Few datasets link return migration to specific sectoral vacancies.
Intersectional factors (gender, age, documentation) are under-analyzed.
Public-health impacts of labour shortages remain understudied.

Ethical considerations: Many returnees are young and unemployed. Female workers dominate domestic/care sectors. Documentation status affects job access and health risk.

Stakeholder perspectives:

Migrants report delayed return due to visa issues and job losses.
Employers cite difficulties replacing foreign workers.
Policymakers stress balancing labour access with skills mismatch.

Synthesis: Mining, agriculture, domestic/care services, construction, and health support roles face plausible labour shortages due to return migration. Yet, direct causal data is limited.

Empirical Evidence from Cities & Provinces

Gauteng: Migrant healthcare workers comprise 23% of private medical professionals (impactmigration.org).
eThekwini: Half of water & sanitation technical staff were vacant in mid-2025 (salabournews.co.za).
Lesotho: 81% of returnees cited Covid-19 as the reason for returning; most lost low-skilled jobs (publications.iom.int).

These figures suggest migration flows impact sectoral labour supply and service delivery.

Three Anonymised Vignettes

Mpho, 33, Basotho female, returned from Sandton. Her domestic work position was lost during lockdown. The employer struggled to find a replacement.
Sabelo, 45, Swazi male, seasonal agriculture worker in Mpumalanga, faced hiring delays due to border issues. Farm managers noted rising labour costs.
Letlhogonolo, 28, Basotho male, construction contractor, could not return during the pandemic. The firm had to hire less experienced local staff at higher supervision costs.

These examples illustrate return migration’s impact on workforce availability and sectoral productivity.

Innovative Solutions & Successful Programmes

Lesotho’s NLMP emphasizes decent work and migrant protection (socialsurveys.co.za).
South African firms improved retention by offering visa processing and occupational health screenings (impactmigration.org).
Labour-mobility pooling can deploy trained workers to sectors facing shortages.
Aligning occupational health with migration policy strengthens workforce resilience.

Recommendations & Implementation Timelines

South African government:

Develop a sectoral labour-shortage tracker (0–12 months).
Integrate return migration data into labour intelligence systems (3–18 months).
Review NLMP quota system (6–24 months).
Strengthen occupational health compliance (6–36 months).

Origin countries:

Launch reintegration programmes for returnees (0–24 months).
Negotiate labour mobility agreements with South Africa (12–36 months).

NGOs / Civil society:

Conduct qualitative research on returnee employment (0–12 months).
Develop training modules for domestic/care work (12–24 months).
Advocate for migrant workforce retention (6–36 months).

Employers:

Audit labour supply chains (0–6 months).
Collaborate with origin-country institutes for skilled workers (6–24 months).

Limitations & Research Gaps

No dataset directly links return migration to sectoral vacancies.
Informal and undocumented labour complicates measurement.
Intersectional data remains scarce.
Causal evidence for migration → shortage → productivity loss is limited.

Conclusion & Call to Action

Return migration from Lesotho and Eswatini affects South Africa’s workforce, particularly in mining, agriculture, domestic/care, construction, and health support.

Policy makers: Track sectoral labour supply and structure cross-border mobility.
Public health: Recognize labour shortages as migration-health issues.
NGOs/researchers: Collect data on returnees, intersectional vulnerabilities, and labour gaps.
Employers: Build ethical labour pipelines and strengthen retention.

Ignoring return migration risks understaffing, productivity loss, and public-health impacts. We must link migration, labour, and health policies in a coherent regional strategy.

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